Highlights:

#1
On the back of overall strong corporate earnings releases, October saw global equity markets continue to churn higher, with the S&P 500 Index and MSCI ACWI Index closing up +2.27% and +2.18% respectively.

#2
The Airo-BOCA Composite gained +0.47% in October, mainly driven by the U.S. technology sector, although our intra-month hedging attempt did not yield positive results. The Airo-Shariah Composite gained +2.68% in October, supported by its concentrated exposure to the U.S. technology sector.

#3
On macro front, the U.S. labour market continued to show signs of weakening, which has been the key driver behind the interest rate market pricing in increasingly dovish rate-cut expectations in recent months.

#4
However, as U.S. inflation remains sticky–with both Headline and Core CPI still above 3.0% year-on-year–Powell’s hawkish cut during the October FOMC shifted the market’s expectation for the forward path of interest rate cuts.

#5
The correction in the U.S. equities began promptly after the October FOMC meeting. Likewise, Bitcoin–often viewed as a proxy for the most speculative asset class–has broken below an important long-term price support channel.

#6
We began hedging our portfolio again by taking profits in the technology sector and initiating short positions in the same space. In the interim, we expect the current correction to be a sizable one.

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Dear Valued Investors,

On the back of overall strong corporate earnings releases, October saw global equity markets continue to churn higher, with the S&P 500 Index and MSCI ACWI Index closing up +2.27% and +2.18% respectively.

The Airo-BOCA Composite gained +0.47% in October, mainly driven by the U.S. technology sector, although our intra-month hedging attempt did not yield positive results. The Airo-Shariah Composite gained +2.68% in October, supported by its concentrated exposure to the U.S. technology sector.

On the macro front, the U.S. labour market continued to show signs of weakening, which has been the key driver behind the interest rate market pricing in increasingly dovish rate-cut expectations in recent months. Both Private Payrolls (ADP) and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) have deteriorated markedly in recent months, giving the market a growth scare. Ironically, this same weakness had been the key factor driving expectations of interest rate cuts in earlier months.

Chart 1: Monthly’s payrolls had deteriorated markedly in the past months

However, as U.S. inflation remains sticky–with both Headline and Core CPI still above 3.0% year-on-year–Powell’s hawkish cut during the October FOMC shifted the market’s expectations for the path of future rate cuts. As of now, the market is no longer expecting a rate cut in December 2025. In addition, the cumulative rate cut expectations for 2026 have been revised down to just three cuts.

Chart 2: U.S Headline & Core CPI remain sticky at above 3.0% year-on-year

The correction in U.S. equities began promptly after the October FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 Index has broken a significant technical level, and market breadth continues to deteriorate. Likewise, Bitcoin–often viewed as a proxy for the most speculative asset class–has broken below an important long-term price support channel. With a broad-based risk-off environment developing across multiple asset classes, we maintain a cautious stance as we head into the final month of the year.

Chart 3: S&P500 has broken a major technical level

Chart 4: S&P500’s breadth is turning more negative

Chart 5: Bitcoin saw a major breakdown on its big ending diagonal since 2021

We began hedging our portfolio again by taking profits in the technology sector and initiating short positions in the same space. In the interim, we expect the current correction to be a sizable one.

Nov 18th, 2025
​William Yii
CIO, CP Global Fintech Solutions

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Disclaimer: Airo is a brand of CP Global Fintech Solutions Sdn Bhd (“CPFS”), licensed by the Securities Commission of Malaysia as a Digital Investment Management company. CPFS is authorised to carry out the business of fund management incorporating innovative technologies into automated discretionary portfolio management services offered to clients under a license issued pursuant to Schedule 2 of the Capital Markets Services Act 2007.

All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of money you invest, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. Historical returns, expected returns, and probability projections are provided for informational and illustrative purposes, and may not reflect actual future performance. CPFS assumes no responsibility for liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable, or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any trading system published by CPFS, are not indicative of future returns by that system, and are not indicative of future returns which will be realised by you.