Insights – Airo – Digital Investment Manager

The Magic of RM500 a Month: Why Compound Interest Could Change Your Life

RM500 a month doesn’t sound like much. But invested consistently, it becomes something that might surprise you.
Let’s talk about compound interest the one financial concept that could genuinely change your life.

What RM500 a Month Actually Grows Into?

Here’s what happens if you invest RM500 every month:

In a regular savings account (2% per year):

After 10 years: RM66,000
After 20 years: RM147,000

In a diversified investment portfolio (historical average ~6% per year):

After 10 years: RM82,000
After 20 years: RM232,000

That’s an extra RM85,000 just by choosing to invest instead of save.

The Most Important Lesson: Time Beats Amount

Someone who invests RM300/month starting at age 25 will likely end up with more than someone who invests RM600/month starting at age 35 even though the second person saves twice as much each month.

This is the magic of compounding. Your returns earn returns. And the longer you stay invested, the more powerful it becomes.

Why Starting Today Is Your Best Move?

“The best time to start was 10 years ago. The second best time is today.”

You don’t need to invest a huge amount. You just need to start and stay consistent. Even RM100 a month is infinitely better than RM0.

Ready to See Your Money Grow?

Calculate how much your monthly savings could grow. Start with whatever amount feels comfortable even RM100 counts.

Bukan nak menakutkan tapi ni fakta yang ramai orang tak sedar. Jom kita tengok angka sebenar.

📊 Kiraan Mudah Yang Akan Buat Korang Terfikir

Kebanyakan orang Malaysia yang bersara duit EPF habis dalam masa kurang dari 10 tahun. Jom kita buat kiraan cepat. Tak payah calculator pun boleh.

💰 Baki purata EPF masa bersara (umur 55)

RM 240,000

Sumber: Data rasmi EPF

Katakanlah korang perlukan RM2,500 sebulan je untuk hidup lepas bersara makan, bayar bil, ubat, transport. Tu dah RM30,000 setahun.

RM240,000 ÷ RM30,000 = 8 tahun sahaja.

Tapi orang Malaysia sekarang hidup sampai purata 76 tahun. Kalau korang bersara umur 55, korang masih kena hidup 21 tahun lagi.

Nampak tak masalahnya?

🤔 Ini Bukan Salah Korang

EPF memang tak direka nak cover semua keperluan persaraan korang sorang-sorang. Tu sebab melabur di luar EPF tu dah jadi keperluan bukan pilihan.

Sistem persaraan yang ada sekarang ni ada hadnya. Tanggungjawab untuk pastikan masa depan korang terjamin tu ada pada korang jugak. Dan khabar baiknya: ia tak semestinya kena bermula besar.

🌱 RM200 Sebulan Lebih Berkuasa Dari Yang Korang Sangka

Tapi part yang best: korang tak perlu labur banyak pun untuk mula. RM200 sebulan yang konsisten selama 20 tahun boleh buat perbezaan yang korang tak sangka.

Kenapa? Sebab ada benda yang dipanggil faedah berganda (compound interest). Lebih awal korang start, lagi besar effect dia.

“Macam bola salji makin lama bergolek, makin besar.”

⏰ Soalan Paling Penting Bukan ‘Berapa?’ Tapi ‘Bila?’

Ramai orang tunggu dulu tunggu gaji naik, tunggu dah settle hutang, tunggu ada lebih. Tapi masa yang berlalu tu yang paling mahal.

Soalan yang paling penting bukan “berapa banyak nak labur?” soalan yang penting adalah “bila nak start?”

🤝 Jom Mulakan Langkah Pertama
Kongsi kiraan ni dengan pasangan atau adik-beradik korang. Lepas tu tanya diri sendiri:
“Bulan ni, ada ke duit yang aku labur di luar EPF?”

Artikel ini adalah untuk tujuan pendidikan kewangan sahaja dan tidak merupakan nasihat pelaburan. Sila rujuk penasihat kewangan berlesen untuk panduan peribadi.

Executive Summary

Q1 2026 was marked by a sharp shift in global market conditions, driven by a major geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
The onset of military conflict involving Iran in late February led to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transit route. This significantly reduced oil and LNG supply, triggering a sharp rise in energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, and increased volatility across financial markets.
The negative impact of Hormuz’s closing & GCC’s oil infrastructure destruction and therefore, global inflation, is expected to be long lasting even if assuming a permanent ceasefire were to happen soon. The truth is that there are more than 80+ energy facilities in the GCC damaged by Iran thus far. According to Rystad Energy, this is a structural destruction of the world’s most critical infrastructure.
As such, the optimistic timeline expected for the normal prior-war GCC driven crude oil throughput to flow normally would be multiple quarters not months.
Prior to the Iran war’s onset, U.S’ A.I growth cycle driven equity rally was already toying with a factual ROI challenge with a heating competition and potential margin compression in both hardware and software.
Our enhanced investment framework is precisely aimed to better navigate changing market conditions and to deliver more better and consistent positive outcomes over time.

Hormuz Closure: The Dominant Macro Risk Factor for 2Q 2026

The Hormuz Strait is effectively closed since early March (Operation Epic Fury, 28 Feb) that causes a shut-in of about 7.5 million barrels of brent crude oil per day in March and potentially rising to 9.1 million barrels per day in April, meaning a 20% of global crude oil supply is removed. This is also a larger crisis than the 1973/79/90 oil shock events.

As of now, brent crude oil remains above $90 per barrel post a collapsed peace talk with Hormuz’s blockade continues. The higher energy prices are already causing global inflationary pressure. Case in point, the U.S’ March CPI jumped +0.9% month-on-month while rate market is pricing-in no more interest rate cut for the rest of 2026 along with a looming stagflationary regime.

Chart 1: Brent crude oil price ~ hawkishly > $95 per barrel

Chart 2: Global Inflation-Linked Index ~ charging high since Iran war started

U.S. A.I. driven rally is coming of age…an imminent standalone risk

The Magnificent7 collectively represents 32.5% of the S&P 500 as of March 2026—up from 12.5% in 2016—creating an extraordinary concentration of index risk. Critically, communication services and information technology sectors are trading at price-to-sales ratios near or above tech bubble peaks. The CAPE ratio for the U.S. market exceeded 40 for the first time since the dot-com crash.

Global yields started to move up significantly post the Iran war in February and assuming no quick resolution to a permanent ceasefire, global yields are expected to continue its ascent to even higher levels.

The implication of a sustained higher yields means the financial market will be pricing-in a larger risk premium for both fixed income and equity investments. At the moment, Nasdaq100 is still trading at 23% above the mean valuation of its 10Y historical PE band, a valuation that is unlikely to have priced-in the Iran war related inflationary risk.

Chart 3: Nasdaq100 remains 23% above the mean valuation of its 10Y historical PE band.

Hyperscalers’ capital expenditure has reached an extraordinary scale. The five major hyperscalers—Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle—are collectively guiding toward approximately $500 billion in capex for 2026, up from $241 billion in 2024. This capex now represents an estimated 1.6% of U.S.’ GDP. As free cash flow comes under pressure from depreciation on these capex., the very margin expansion story that sustained premium multiples shall begin to erode.

Chart 4: Capex of major hyperscalers

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence and Companies

Lastly, the Magnificent7’s projected earnings growth for 2026 stands at approximately 18%—the slowest pace since 2022 and a sharp deceleration from 36.8% in 2024. More glaringly, Nasdaq100 1Q 2026’s EPS growth is projected at 11% yoy only! As the high double digits EPS growth was a key fundamental factor spurring the A.I. rally, a reversal of this trend is likewise presenting a continuous valuation risk in the coming quarters.

Concluding Remark

The convergence of a generational energy supply shock coupled with a stretched A.I. valuations approaching a capex reckoning create a macro environment that demands defensive positioning and rigorous risk management.

We recognise that performance matters deeply to our clients. And, with our enhanced framework now in place, we are focused on deploying capital more systematically with a clearer conviction.

With our strengthened investment approach, we envisage to better navigate changing market conditions and to deliver more consistent positive outcomes over time.

We appreciate your continued trust and support.

William Yii
20 April 2026
CIO, CP Global Fintech Solutions.

CP GLOBAL FINTECH SOLUTIONS SDN. BHD. – MALAYSIA

Megan Avenue 1, No. 189, Jalan Tun Razak, Suite B-6-3, Block B, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Disclaimer: Airo is a brand of CP Global Fintech Solutions Sdn Bhd (“CPFS”), licensed by the Securities Commission of Malaysia as a Digital Investment Management company. CPFS is authorised to carry out the business of fund management incorporating innovative technologies into automated discretionary portfolio management services offered to clients under a license issued pursuant to Schedule 2 of the Capital Markets Services Act 2007.

All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of money you invest, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. Historical returns, expected returns, and probability projections are provided for informational and illustrative purposes, and may not reflect actual future performance. BHFS assumes no responsibility for liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable, or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any trading system published by BHFS, are not indicative of future returns by that system, and are not indicative of future returns which will be realized by you.

A Tough Quarter, Explained Plainly

Q1 2026 Portfolios Update

Dear Client,

Due to the volatility caused by the Iran war event, the first three months of 2026 were a difficult time for investors around the world, and our portfolios felt it too. Before anything else, we want to walk you through what happened to your investment, why it happened, and what we are doing about it.

What Went Wrong in the World

In late February, war broke out in the Middle East involving Iran. This led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow sea lane between Iran and Oman that handles roughly one out of every five barrels of oil used in the world each day.

When that much oil suddenly stops moving, prices go up. Crude oil has held above $90 a barrel for weeks. Higher oil means higher fuel, higher transport costs, and higher prices at the supermarket. This is inflation, and it came back quickly.

In March, US inflation jumped almost 1% in a single month. That is a big number. Before the war, markets expected the US central bank to cut interest rates this year. Now, nobody is expecting that to happen anymore. High oil, high inflation, and no rate cuts together make an uncomfortable environment for most investments.

Portfolio Performance Overview (Q1 2026)

Conventional Portfolios

Note: Performance should be viewed in the context of conventional portfolio restructuring completed by end of March, where legacy portfolios were transitioned into a new structure.

Shariah Portfolios

Source: CP Global Fintech Solutions, Bloomberg

What Went Wrong in Our Portfolios

Two things hurt us in Q1 2026.

First, the world got harder. Almost every global portfolio went down when the war broke out. Markets become more volatile quickly after the geopolitical event, some positions taken earlier in the quarter did not perform as expected.

Second, the portfolio restructuring during the quarter. Airo converted the legacy Balanced, Contrarian, Opportunistic and Aggressive (BOCA) portfolios into the new Growth, Balanced and Conservative portfolios which is a new framework designed to improve consistency and risk management. By implementing a global-macro regime driven asset allocation strategy from both a top-down and a bottom-up perspective, we believe that this new strategy will better serve our investors in the long run. During this transition period, the portfolio did not fully reflect either from the old or the new approach, which affected short-term performance.

On the other hand, the Shariah portfolios held up much better than the Conventional ones as it was not impacted by the restructuring initiative. And, crude oil exposure was the main reason that the Shariah portfolios held up relatively well with the exposure such as Exxon Mobil which benefited from the oil price spike.

We are not presenting this as an excuse, but as part of the necessary steps taken to strengthen the investment approach going forward.

What We Are Doing Now

With the strategy upgrade completed, we have made three changes to your Conventional portfolio:

We have raised more cash. Cash does not earn much, but it is steady and it gives us room to invest at a much better entry prices.
We have trimmed some aggressive US technology stocks. These have been the stars of recent years, but they have become expensive, and the earnings growth drivers behind them are starting to weaken.
We have moved money into healthcare and consumer staples (i.e. defensive sectors)— companies that sell things people need whether times are good or bad, such as medicines, food, and household goods are cushioning your portfolios for the time being.

We understand that periods like this can be uncomfortable and we take this outcome seriously.

The changes we have made are focused on building a more disciplined and resilient investment approach so that we are better prepared for different market conditions going forward.

Thank you for your continued trust and patience with us.

William Yii
Chief Investment Officer
20 April 2026

CP GLOBAL FINTECH SOLUTIONS SDN. BHD. — MALAYSIA

Megan Avenue 1, No. 189, Jalan Tun Razak, Suite B-6-3, Block B, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Every week, someone in Malaysia loses money to an investment scam. Here’s how to make sure you’re not next.

Investment scams are everywhere in Malaysia. WhatsApp groups promising 15% monthly returns. Facebook ads with luxury cars. ‘Gurus’ who claim they can double your money in 3 months. So how do you tell the real thing from a scam?

Here’s a simple checklist:

LEGITIMATE PLATFORM:

→ Has an SC (Securities Commission) licence — you can verify at sc.com.my

→ Never promises guaranteed or fixed returns

→ Fees and charges are clearly disclosed upfront

→ You can withdraw your money without strange conditions

→ Regulated, audited, and publicly accountable

INVESTMENT SCAM:

→ Promises fixed returns like “12% per month, guaranteed”

→ Pushes you to recruit others to earn more

→ No licence number, or uses a fake/expired one

→ Complicated withdrawal process, or excuses when you try to take out money

→ High pressure to invest quickly before a “deadline”

The golden rule: If someone promises guaranteed returns, walk away. Real investing involves real risk — and that’s actually the honest truth about how wealth is built.

Before you invest, spend 2 minutes on sc.com.my to check if the platform is licensed. It’s free. It takes 2 minutes. And it could save your entire savings.

Save this post and share it with one person who might be thinking about investing. One share could protect someone you care about.

Highlights:

#1
December was a flat month for the S&P 500 at 0.05%, as the A.I. sector appeared to have peaked since the end of October 2025. More broadly, the MSCI ACWI closed higher by 0.94%, driven in particular by strong outperformance in emerging markets and Europe.

#2
The Airo-BOCA Composite declined by 1.51% in December, primarily due to hedging positions in the U.S. technology sector. These losses remain unrealized, as the hedging positions are still maintained. The Airo-Shariah Composite was broadly flat at 0.04%, as no hedging mechanisms are employed within the Shariah portfolios.

#3
Global markets began the year amid mounting uncertainties, consistent with what I highlighted in the previous CIO letter–that global macro conditions have entered a period of shifting sands. First, fiscal dominance has emerged as a central theme among the world’s largest economies, namely the U.S., China, and Japan. How these pent-up government expenditures will influence the forward inflation trajectory remains to be seen.

#4
Secondly, Trump’s foreign policy has given rise to a new wave of geopolitical uncertainty, as the U.S. has reportedly invaded Venezuela and seized its crude oil assets. This development alone has created significant repercussions for crude oil trade flows involving China and Russia. In addition, there are growing rumors that the U.S. may be on the brink of military action against Iran amid ongoing civil unrest in the country.

#5
Lastly, A.I.-driven technology companies continue to ramp up A.I.-related capital expenditures. While this presents a positive growth narrative on the surface, relentless spending without due regard for returns on investment is a growing red flag, particularly given current valuations within the A.I. space.

#6
From a strategy perspective, we remain cautious as we head into February and continue to hold the view that volatility remains elevated. Stay nimble, stay safe!

– – –

Dear Valued Investors,

December was a flat month for the U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 flat at 0.05%, driven primarily by a pause in the A.I. sector, which has peaked since the end of October 2025. More broadly, the MSCI ACWI closed up 0.94%, supported by strong outperformance in emerging markets and Europe.

Chart 1: Magnificent 7 peaked in October 2025 and failed to hit new high as a group

The Airo-BOCA Composite declined by 1.51% in December, primarily due to hedging positions in the U.S. technology sector. These losses remain unrealized, as the hedging positions are still maintained due to relative underperformance in the technology sector. The Airo-Shariah Composite was broadly flat at 0.04%, as there no hedging mechanisms are employed within the Shariah portfolios.

Table 1: Airo-BOCA Composite Performance (Dec 2025)

Source: CP Global Fintech Solutions, InteractiveBrokers

Table 2: Airo-Shariah Composite Performance (Dec 2025)

Global markets began the year amid mounting uncertainties, consistent with what I highlighted in the previous CIO letter–that global macro conditions have entered a period of shifting sands. First, fiscal dominance has emerged as a central theme among the world’s largest economies, namely the U.S., China, and Japan. As these major countries are increasing government expenditures without a similar increase in tax revenue, how these pent-up government expenditures will influence the forward inflation trajectory remains to be seen. In addition to these fiscal stimulus measures that require funding, the U.S. has approximately USD 9 trillion in Treasury bills and bonds maturing in 2026. This combination of unchecked spending and looming debt maturities is putting upward pressure on global long-end yields at the current juncture.

Secondly, Trump’s foreign policy has given rise to a new wave of geopolitical uncertainty, as the U.S. has reportedly invaded Venezuela and seized its crude oil assets. This development alone has created significant repercussions for crude oil trade flows involving China and Russia. Given Venezuela’s vast crude oil reserves and China’s significant investments in the country, the U.S. has clearly angered China as a result. In addition, ongoing civil unrest in Iran is presenting the U.S. with a potential opportunity for further intervention.

Lastly, A.I.-driven technology companies continue to ramp up A.I.-related capital expenditures. While this presents a positive growth narrative on the surface, relentless spending without due regard for returns on investment is a red flag, particularly given current valuations in the A.I. space. From a historically precedence, equity valuation tended to peak well ahead of the capex. cycle. As such, from a market timing & sector picking perspective, we would need to be extra diligent on the exposure into the A.I. driven technology sector.

Chart 2: Incremental A.I capacity to be added will grow 3.5x from 2025 to 2030

From a strategy perspective, we remain cautious as we head into February and continue to hold the view that volatility remains elevated. Stay nimble, stay safe!

Jan 29th, 2026
William Yii
CIO, CP Global Fintech Solutions

– – –

Disclaimer: Airo is a brand of CP Global Fintech Solutions Sdn Bhd (“CPFS”), licensed by the Securities Commission of Malaysia as a Digital Investment Management company. CPFS is authorised to carry out the business of fund management incorporating innovative technologies into automated discretionary portfolio management services offered to clients under a license issued pursuant to Schedule 2 of the Capital Markets Services Act 2007.

All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of money you invest, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. Historical returns, expected returns, and probability projections are provided for informational and illustrative purposes, and may not reflect actual future performance. CPFS assumes no responsibility for liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable, or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any trading system published by CPFS, are not indicative of future returns by that system, and are not indicative of future returns which will be realised by you.

Highlights:

#1
November was a negative month for Airo-BOCA, primarily due to the early reinstatement of our hedging strategy ahead of market movements. However, this is set to change, as the Nasdaq-100 has peaked since October and is currently undergoing a correction, with more downside bias expected.

#2
The Airo-BOCA Composite lost -4.42% in November, mainly due to hedging positions in the U.S. technology sector. However, this was an unrealized loss, as we are carrying the short positions forward into December. The Airo-Shariah Composite lost -0.60%, as there is no hedging mechanism for the Shariah portfolios. By comparison, the MSCI ACWI and Nasdaq-100 indices were down -0.11% and -1.64%, respectively, in November.

#3
The U.S. equity market is running on a dissipating A.I. growth narrative, where competition is heating up fiercely within the sector and is potentially turning this positive growth driver into a more neutral to negative commoditization narrative.

#4
Given the micro backdrop of current equity valuations, a shifting narrative can and will incite a serious reckoning in the forward expected return trajectory. In other words, when the going get tough, markets will likely demand a higher risk premium by dampening equity prices.

#5
Macro-wise, global bond markets are facing rising yields at the long end of the yield curve. In layman’s terms, this means bond markets are fearing that inflation may move higher rather than lower in the coming months. Coupled with the potential for further interest rate cuts, the implications do not appear conducive for risky assets in general.

#6
Strategy-wise, we remain cautious for the rest of December and opine that more corrections may be forthcoming as we head into 2026. Stay nimble, stay safe!

– – –

Dear Valued Investors,

November was a negative month for Airo-BOCA, primarily due to the early reinstatement of our hedging strategy ahead of market movements. However, this is set to change, as the Nasdaq-100 has peaked since October and is currently undergoing a correction, with more downside bias expected. Despite the U.S. Fed’s recent -0.25% interest rate cut, we have not seen and do not foresee any meaningful rally in the global equity markets. Instead, cross-asset price actions are setting the stage for another round of correction.

The Airo-BOCA Composite lost -4.42% in November, mainly due to new hedging positions in the U.S. technology sector. However, this was an unrealized loss, as we are carrying the short positions forward into December. The Airo-Shariah Composite lost -0.60%, as there is no hedging mechanism for the Shariah portfolios. By comparison, the MSCI ACWI and Nasdaq-100 indices were down -0.11% and -1.64%, respectively, in November.

Table 1: Airo-BOCA Composite Performance (Nov 2025)

Nvidia, as the poster child of the A.I. sector, saw its share price peaked in October following the announcement of its 3Q FY2025 results. What happened next? Since Google publicly announced its in-house TPU chips to external clients to compete directly with Nvidia’s GPUs, Nvidia’s share price has continued to slide–from its peak of USD 210 to USD 177, representing a -16% correction in a short span of 1 ½ months. The long-held claim that Nvidia has no real competitors is no longer entirely true. In China, Huawei and Baidu are also rolling out their own chip solutions to meet domestic demand. Although the Trump administration recently relaxed export curbs on Nvidia’s H100 chips, China does not appear particularly enthusiastic, suggesting that it may no longer be reliant on Nvidia’s offerings. In short, recent developments indicate that the market may be shifting the A.I. growth narrative toward an A.I. commoditization narrative sooner rather than later. With rising competition and potential price wars, margin compression could set in quickly, further weighing on already slowing year-on-year earnings growth.

Chart 1: Nvidia share price peaked right before Google TPU’s public released

Given the micro backdrop of current equity valuations, a shifting narrative from growth to a more neutral stance can and will incite a serious reckoning in the forward expected return trajectory. At present, the S&P 500 is trading at 2026E forward P/E of 23x, which is at +2 sigma of its 10-year trailing P/E band. In other words, when the going gets tough, markets will likely demand a higher risk premium by dampening equity prices that are already very expensive by historical standards.

Chart 2: S&P500 trading at the top-band of its 10-year trailing PE ranges

Moreover, from a historical perspective, whenever the S&P 500 was trading at above 20x forward P/E, the subsequent 10-year forward-looking annualized returns have always been negative. For context, the market is currently trading at a 2026E forward P/E of 23x.

Chart 3: From a historical perspective, the 10-year annualized forward return has always been negative when S&P500 was trading at > 20x PE.

Macro-wise, global bond markets are facing rising yields at the long end of the yield curve. In layman’s terms, this means bond markets are increasingly concerned that inflation may move higher rather than lower in the coming months. Coupled with a new round of fiscal expansion in the U.S and the potential for further interest rate cuts amid sticky inflation, the implications do not appear conducive for risky assets in general, from a central bank policy error perspective. Indeed, a continued rise in long-end yields driven by inflation concerns would trigger a higher risk premium, as investors demand a higher required rate of return.

Chart 4: U.S Treasury 30-year yield is about to breakout to its upside!?

Strategy-wise, given both the micro backdrop and macro risk factors described above, we remain cautious for the rest of December and opine that further corrections may be forthcoming as we head into 2026. Stay nimble, stay safe!

Dec 24th, 2025
William Yii
CIO, CP Global Fintech Solutions

– – –

All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of money you invest, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. Historical returns, expected returns, and probability projections are provided for informational and illustrative purposes, and may not reflect actual future performance. CPFS assumes no responsibility for liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable, or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any trading system published by CPFS, are not indicative of future returns by that system, and are not indicative of future returns which will be realised by you.

As we approach the end of 2025, global markets remain firmly supported by a combination of strong earnings and the ongoing acceleration of AI-driven investments. Major equity indices continue to ride this momentum, with analysts projecting robust earnings growth into 2026 as companies ramp up AI infrastructure spending, automation initiatives and efficiency upgrades. While mega-cap tech remains the main engine of performance following a stellar year-to-date performance, the market is grappling with broader rally momentum loss. Furthermore, investors’ year-end profit-taking is expected to drive higher volatility.

Monetary policy expectations are also playing a major role. Markets broadly expect central banks to deliver additional rate cuts throughout 2026, driven by moderating inflation and cooling labour markets. These expectations have helped stabilise bond yields and improved risk appetite, particularly for credit and equity markets. However, the outlook is not without uncertainty. Sticky inflation, geopolitical tensions and global trade disruptions, especially involving major economies continue to present downside risks. Valuation concerns are also mounting, especially in AI-heavy segments where rapid price appreciation may face the music if earnings fail to keep up.

Investors looking ahead to 2026 should therefore consider this period as an opportunity to reassess risk concentration and reposition their portfolios for a more balanced environment. One practical step is to trim overweight positions in high-flying tech and redeploy into defensive sectors that have lagged but are poised to benefit from an easing policy backdrop, such as healthcare. Geographic diversification is likewise increasingly critical, with non-US equities particularly in emerging markets exposed to AI adoption and improving credit conditions, showing potential for catch-up performance.

Overall, the path into 2026 presents a mix of optimism and caution. The global economy is supported by structural trends like AI and productivity expansion, but the market’s current strength calls for thoughtful rebalancing rather than blind momentum chasing. A diversified, risk-aware approach blending growth opportunities with defensive buffers will help investors navigate potential volatility while positioning for long-term resilience.

Highlights:

#1
On the back of overall strong corporate earnings releases, October saw global equity markets continue to churn higher, with the S&P 500 Index and MSCI ACWI Index closing up +2.27% and +2.18% respectively.

#2
The Airo-BOCA Composite gained +0.47% in October, mainly driven by the U.S. technology sector, although our intra-month hedging attempt did not yield positive results. The Airo-Shariah Composite gained +2.68% in October, supported by its concentrated exposure to the U.S. technology sector.

#3
On macro front, the U.S. labour market continued to show signs of weakening, which has been the key driver behind the interest rate market pricing in increasingly dovish rate-cut expectations in recent months.

#4
However, as U.S. inflation remains sticky–with both Headline and Core CPI still above 3.0% year-on-year–Powell’s hawkish cut during the October FOMC shifted the market’s expectation for the forward path of interest rate cuts.

#5
The correction in the U.S. equities began promptly after the October FOMC meeting. Likewise, Bitcoin–often viewed as a proxy for the most speculative asset class–has broken below an important long-term price support channel.

#6
We began hedging our portfolio again by taking profits in the technology sector and initiating short positions in the same space. In the interim, we expect the current correction to be a sizable one.

– – –

Dear Valued Investors,

On the back of overall strong corporate earnings releases, October saw global equity markets continue to churn higher, with the S&P 500 Index and MSCI ACWI Index closing up +2.27% and +2.18% respectively.

The Airo-BOCA Composite gained +0.47% in October, mainly driven by the U.S. technology sector, although our intra-month hedging attempt did not yield positive results. The Airo-Shariah Composite gained +2.68% in October, supported by its concentrated exposure to the U.S. technology sector.

On the macro front, the U.S. labour market continued to show signs of weakening, which has been the key driver behind the interest rate market pricing in increasingly dovish rate-cut expectations in recent months. Both Private Payrolls (ADP) and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) have deteriorated markedly in recent months, giving the market a growth scare. Ironically, this same weakness had been the key factor driving expectations of interest rate cuts in earlier months.

Chart 1: Monthly’s payrolls had deteriorated markedly in the past months

However, as U.S. inflation remains sticky–with both Headline and Core CPI still above 3.0% year-on-year–Powell’s hawkish cut during the October FOMC shifted the market’s expectations for the path of future rate cuts. As of now, the market is no longer expecting a rate cut in December 2025. In addition, the cumulative rate cut expectations for 2026 have been revised down to just three cuts.

Chart 2: U.S Headline & Core CPI remain sticky at above 3.0% year-on-year

The correction in U.S. equities began promptly after the October FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 Index has broken a significant technical level, and market breadth continues to deteriorate. Likewise, Bitcoin–often viewed as a proxy for the most speculative asset class–has broken below an important long-term price support channel. With a broad-based risk-off environment developing across multiple asset classes, we maintain a cautious stance as we head into the final month of the year.

Chart 3: S&P500 has broken a major technical level

Chart 4: S&P500’s breadth is turning more negative

Chart 5: Bitcoin saw a major breakdown on its big ending diagonal since 2021

We began hedging our portfolio again by taking profits in the technology sector and initiating short positions in the same space. In the interim, we expect the current correction to be a sizable one.

Nov 18th, 2025
William Yii
CIO, CP Global Fintech Solutions

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All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of money you invest, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. Historical returns, expected returns, and probability projections are provided for informational and illustrative purposes, and may not reflect actual future performance. CPFS assumes no responsibility for liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable, or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any trading system published by CPFS, are not indicative of future returns by that system, and are not indicative of future returns which will be realised by you.

Highlights:

#1
September was another strong month, with global equity markets continuing to rally. The S&P500 index and MSCW ACWI Index closed up +3.53% and +3.49%, respectively.

#2
The Airo-BOCA Composite gained +2.59% in September, driven mainly by profit-taking in gold miners and increased exposure to the U.S. and China technology sectors. The decision to close the short position in the technology sector while increasing long exposure proved to be correct. The Airo-Shariah Composite gained +4.77% in August, with performance supported broadly by both the U.S. and global equity markets.

#3
The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, and it has affected the release of major economic data, namely labor market and inflation reports. This remains one of the key macro risk factors to watch, as it could translate into significant layoffs in the U.S. labor market.

#4
The U.S.–China tariff tension has been a major headline, somewhat affecting global equity sentiment. Although Trump recently softened his tone on tariffs, a potential escalation of the trade war between the two giants could serve as a timely trigger for a short-term correction in global equity markets.

#5
Lastly, the consensus still expects double-digit earnings growth from the Magnificent7 compared with the rest of the S&P 500 constituents. Looking ahead, we may begin to hedge our existing equity positions while continuing to monitor macroeconomic growth, inflation, and other risk factors that could undermine underlying market conditions.

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Dear Valued Investors,

September was another strong month, with global equity markets continuing to rally. The S&P 500 Index and MSCW ACWI Index both up +3.53% and +3.49%, respectively.

The Airo-BOCA Composite gained +2.59% in September, driven mainly by profit-taking in gold miners and increased exposure to the U.S. and China technology sectors. The decision to close the short position in the technology sector while increasing long exposure proved to be correct. The Airo-Shariah Composite gained +4.77% in August, with performance supported broadly by both the U.S. and global equity markets.

Table 1: Airo-BOCA Composite (Sep 2025) Performance in USD Term

Table 2: Airo-Shariah Composite (Sep 2025) Performance in USD Term

The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, and it has affected the release of major economic data, namely labor market and inflation reports. This remains one of the key macro risk factors to watch, as it could translate into significant layoffs in the U.S. labor market. In addition, a prolonged shut-down may weigh on the consumption sentiment in the U.S. market.

The U.S.–China tariff tension has been a major headline, somewhat affecting global equity sentiment. Although Trump recently softened his tone on tariffs, a potential escalation of the trade war between the two giants could serve as a timely trigger for a short-term correction in global equity markets.

Chart 1: S&P500’s 10-year historical valuation band remains overstretched

Lastly, the consensus still expects double-digit earnings growth from the Magnificent7 compared with the rest of the S&P 500 constituents. Looking ahead, we may begin to hedge our existing equity positions while continuing to monitor macroeconomic growth, inflation, and other risk factors that could undermine underlying market conditions.

Chart 2: Magnificent7 are still expected to contribute double-digit earnings growth

Source: CP Global Fintech Solutions, Factset

Oct 20th, 2025
William Yii
CIO, CP Global Fintech Solutions

– – –

All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of money you invest, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. Historical returns, expected returns, and probability projections are provided for informational and illustrative purposes, and may not reflect actual future performance. CPFS assumes no responsibility for liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable, or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any trading system published by CPFS, are not indicative of future returns by that system, and are not indicative of future returns which will be realised by you.